Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments: How Well Have they Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?
Object category:
Elektronische Ressource
Person/Institution:
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Ort:
Washington, D.C
Date:
2009
Language:
Englisch
Additional information
Abstract:
The IMF''s Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER). We find that CGER''s estimated misalignments have predictive power over future REER movements, especially over longer horizons and after changes in fundamentals are accounted for. But while CGER misalignments frequently predict the direction of currency movements correctly, misalignments have tended to be persistent, resulting in systematic errors-overprediction for undervalued currencies and underprediction for overvalued currencies
Object text:
Lee, Jungjin
Online-Ausg.
Online-Ausg.
Access and usage options
Administrative details
Created:
2023-04-12
Last changed:
2023-01-26
Added to portal:
2023-04-12
Feedback
Our data sets are in constant development. If you have additional information about this object or discovered an error, please write to us. Information on privacy policy
Ähnliche Objekte
Entdecken Sie ähnliche Objekte. Über die Datenfelder können Sie die Objekte auswählen, die Sie interessieren. Sie können Ihre Suchfilter beibehalten oder deaktivieren.
Suchfilter berücksichtigen
-
Object category:
- 101136
-
Language:
- 166554